Post by MikeGrim on Oct 10, 2008 9:56:25 GMT -5
College Football Week 7 Picks
by: James Smith
Apologies to everyone for not having a week 6 column last week. Work was annoyingly busy (damn you Wall St.!) which kept me late some evenings, thus the column had to be put on hold for a week. But we’re back again for a huge week 7 jam-packed with great college football games. Since I missed week 6, I will pick 6 games for the next 5 weeks to make up ground.
James’ NCAA Football TOP 20
1. Oklahoma – avg. margin of victory thus far - 35.8 11. Florida – Tebow had 23 rushing TD’s last year. Only 2 this year?
2. Missouri – ok, ok, ok. Chase, I’m a believer now 12. Vanderbilt – 2008’s Cinderella team
3. Alabama – I’m still stunned over the Georgia game 13. Boise St. – this week’s Southern Miss game is arguably their toughest remaining game
4. LSU – since I don’t believe in Auburn, I consider this week their 1st big test 14. Utah – see BYU
5. Texas – avg. margin of victory thus far – 35.8 (touché Oklahoma!) 15. Oklahoma St. – scored 55+ points in last 4 games
6. Penn St. – scared to death traveling to Wisconsin this week 16. Ohio St. – needs PSU to be unbeaten going into their Oct. 25 matchup to get cred back
7.Texas Tech – dropped a big fat 70 on Nebraska last year 17. South Florida - lost to a Pitt team that almost lost to woeful Syracuse. Unexcusable.
8. BYU – so long as TCU doesn’t trip them up, finale against Utah looms huge 18. Kansas – eyeing Oct. 18 game @ Oklahoma
9. USC – will undoubtedly go rest of season unbeaten 19. Michigan St. – allowed late big play against Cal in opener, otherwise could be unbeaten
10. Georgia – look to rebound after Alabama disaster 20. Ball State – imagine if star WR Dante Love wasn’t done for season
HEISMAN FRONT-RUNNERS
QB Chase Daniel, Missouri – went in cruise control last week against Nebraska attempting only 23 passes for 253yds, 3td’s, 0int’s. Next two weeks vs. Oklahoma St and Texas loom large.
QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma - Right on Daniels’ heels and arguably leading this race with a higher rating and more TD passes. Posting big numbers this week against Texas would push him to #1 on this list.
QB Graham Harrell, Texas Tech – putting up another season of video-game-like numbers to match his 2007 season and seems to be getting better with 15 TD passes versus 0 interceptions over the last three games.
(Honorable mentions: RB Javon Ringer, Mich St., QB Max Hall, BYU, WR Michael Crabtree, TTech, RB Donald Brown, UConn)
DON’T TURN THAT DIAL! (List of exciting playmakers that are must-see)
-Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia
-Robert Griffen QB Baylor
-Pat White QB West Virginia
-Percy Harvin WR Florida
-Demarco Murray RB Oklahoma
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RECORD: 11-13-1 (spread), 17-8 (head up)
#19 MICHIGAN ST. (-2.5) vs. NORTHWESTERN
The kid can run the 40-yard dash in 4.3 seconds, the shuttle in 3.8 seconds, bench press 400 pounds, squat 620 and has a vertical leap of 39 inches. All 5’9" 202lbs of him. While not possessing prototypical NFL size, Michigan St. RB Javon Ringer does possess NFL size, strength, and ability. Northwestern will have their hands full dealing with the Heisman hopeful. Both the Spartans and Wildcats enter the game riding 5-game win streaks. Both teams’ last win came against Iowa in which both games came down to the wire. These two participated in a great one last year which the Wildcats pulled out 48-41 in OT.
Michigan St 27 Northwestern 17
NOTRE DAME vs. NORTH CAROLINA (-7.5)
It is odd seeing Notre Dame sitting at 4-1 and still unranked. As much as a fan of the Irish that I am, I agree with the writers and coaches thus far. I get Notre Dame is a love-hate team in the college football arena. I gotta say it is nice not hearing the haters whine about Notre Dame being over ranked due to their name. Admittedly, the prestige of the program has taken a hit over the past few years and Notre Dame is currently in a position where they have to earn it back. They can take a baby step toward regaining some respect this week vs. #22(AP) North Carolina. Notre Dame has not won against a ranked team since beating Penn St. 41-17 way back on Sept. 9, 2006! The Tar Heels look to avenge the 45-26 loss they suffered in South Bend in 2006.
Notre Dame 35 North Carolina 24
#15 OKLAHOMA ST. vs. #2 MISSOURI (-13.5)
With Missouri sitting at No. 2 in the country in scoring and Oklahoma St at No. 3, expect some fireworks. I’ve got to admit, I was not on the Chase Daniel bandwagon once the 2008 season started. I did not believe. But after watching him work a few games this season, the kid can just flat out play. His management of the Tigers offense is crisp, effective, efficient and productive. Oklahoma St. needs to keep Daniel and favorite target WR Jeremy Maclin off the field as much as possible. The Cowboys just might be able to achieve this goal with a strong ground game (315.2 rushing yards per game - #2 in the country). Both Oklahoma St. RB’s, Kendall Hunter and Keith Toston have been sensational averaging 7.0 and 8.5 yards per carry respectively. An upset win over the Tigers would go a long way toward dissolving the images of this 2007 rant by Oklahoma St. head coach Mike Gundy.
Missouri 82 Oklahoma St. 81
#5 TEXAS vs. #1 OKLAHOMA (-7)
Either Texas or Oklahoma has represented the South in the Big 12 title game in each of the last nine seasons. You got to believe the winner of this game will keep that trend in tack, although Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech may have something to say about that. While not the deepest conference, the Big 12 currently has 6 teams ranked in the top 17 in the country in both the AP and coaches polls. Five of those ranked teams are unbeaten thus far. Four (mentioned above) of those five are in the same division, thus only one can remain unbeaten all season. So win that division and then be forced to win the Big 12 title game…quite the task to get to the BCS title game. Scenarios like this lend credence to the whole "the regular season IS a playoff" argument. The only problem is that with 120 FSB teams in 12 different conferences, these scenarios don’t always play out as such to dwindle one BCS title game to simply 2 teams. Don’t get me started on this…I’m getting the shakes as I type this (shakes kind of on the same level as Andy Reid trying to make a 4th and goal decision from the 1 yard line).
Oklahoma 38 Texas 24
#4 LSU vs. #11 FLORIDA (-6)
I can just hear it now . Crank it LOUD and I call you a liar if you don’t get fired up! Welcome to the Swamp!!! Now, all I’m hearing leading up to this game is the pre-game comments made by LSU defensive tackle Ricky Jean-Francois that the Tiger defenders are geared up to try to knock Florida QB Tim Tebow out of the game. Why is everyone getting so bent out of shape over this? A few things here: First, if anything, all those comments will do is draw quick whistles on the LSU defense as every referee on the field will have quick triggers with the flags. Second, Tim Tebow is a very big dude and anything short of a cheap shot to the knee will not phase the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner. Third, I’ve never seen him play and don’t care how big he might be, but I’d be damned if anyone with the last name Jean-Francois is going to intimidate me. Looking at the line, it just doesn’t seem right that LSU (undefeated defending champs nonetheless) is getting a full touchdown against the one loss Gators. At last glance, 66% of bettors are taking the bait. Not me.
Florida 35 LSU 28
#6 PENN ST. (-5) vs. WISCONSIN
Much like the baseball fans sitting in Philadelphia, there is similar nervous optimism in Happy Valley. My PSU buddies can’t be found these days. Terrified to say a word. It is funny how sports does this to its fans. In their defense, the Nittany Lions immense success this season has been a little unexpected so it is understandable their fan base is holding back some. On the other hand, Wisconsin’s season is going nothing like expected. They were supposed to challenge Ohio St. for Big Ten supremacy. But the Badgers are now already 0-2 in the conference, losing their last two games to Michigan and Ohio St. by a combined 5 points. While getting the win last week vs. Purdue, the PSU defense stepped it up holding the Boilermakers to 6 points while the usually high scoring offense was held to only 20. Am I the only one that is having an extremely hard time seeing Wisconsin lose back-to-back home games at Camp Randall?
Wisconsin 27 Penn St. 24
by: James Smith
Apologies to everyone for not having a week 6 column last week. Work was annoyingly busy (damn you Wall St.!) which kept me late some evenings, thus the column had to be put on hold for a week. But we’re back again for a huge week 7 jam-packed with great college football games. Since I missed week 6, I will pick 6 games for the next 5 weeks to make up ground.
James’ NCAA Football TOP 20
1. Oklahoma – avg. margin of victory thus far - 35.8 11. Florida – Tebow had 23 rushing TD’s last year. Only 2 this year?
2. Missouri – ok, ok, ok. Chase, I’m a believer now 12. Vanderbilt – 2008’s Cinderella team
3. Alabama – I’m still stunned over the Georgia game 13. Boise St. – this week’s Southern Miss game is arguably their toughest remaining game
4. LSU – since I don’t believe in Auburn, I consider this week their 1st big test 14. Utah – see BYU
5. Texas – avg. margin of victory thus far – 35.8 (touché Oklahoma!) 15. Oklahoma St. – scored 55+ points in last 4 games
6. Penn St. – scared to death traveling to Wisconsin this week 16. Ohio St. – needs PSU to be unbeaten going into their Oct. 25 matchup to get cred back
7.Texas Tech – dropped a big fat 70 on Nebraska last year 17. South Florida - lost to a Pitt team that almost lost to woeful Syracuse. Unexcusable.
8. BYU – so long as TCU doesn’t trip them up, finale against Utah looms huge 18. Kansas – eyeing Oct. 18 game @ Oklahoma
9. USC – will undoubtedly go rest of season unbeaten 19. Michigan St. – allowed late big play against Cal in opener, otherwise could be unbeaten
10. Georgia – look to rebound after Alabama disaster 20. Ball State – imagine if star WR Dante Love wasn’t done for season
HEISMAN FRONT-RUNNERS
QB Chase Daniel, Missouri – went in cruise control last week against Nebraska attempting only 23 passes for 253yds, 3td’s, 0int’s. Next two weeks vs. Oklahoma St and Texas loom large.
QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma - Right on Daniels’ heels and arguably leading this race with a higher rating and more TD passes. Posting big numbers this week against Texas would push him to #1 on this list.
QB Graham Harrell, Texas Tech – putting up another season of video-game-like numbers to match his 2007 season and seems to be getting better with 15 TD passes versus 0 interceptions over the last three games.
(Honorable mentions: RB Javon Ringer, Mich St., QB Max Hall, BYU, WR Michael Crabtree, TTech, RB Donald Brown, UConn)
DON’T TURN THAT DIAL! (List of exciting playmakers that are must-see)
-Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia
-Robert Griffen QB Baylor
-Pat White QB West Virginia
-Percy Harvin WR Florida
-Demarco Murray RB Oklahoma
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECORD: 11-13-1 (spread), 17-8 (head up)
#19 MICHIGAN ST. (-2.5) vs. NORTHWESTERN
The kid can run the 40-yard dash in 4.3 seconds, the shuttle in 3.8 seconds, bench press 400 pounds, squat 620 and has a vertical leap of 39 inches. All 5’9" 202lbs of him. While not possessing prototypical NFL size, Michigan St. RB Javon Ringer does possess NFL size, strength, and ability. Northwestern will have their hands full dealing with the Heisman hopeful. Both the Spartans and Wildcats enter the game riding 5-game win streaks. Both teams’ last win came against Iowa in which both games came down to the wire. These two participated in a great one last year which the Wildcats pulled out 48-41 in OT.
Michigan St 27 Northwestern 17
NOTRE DAME vs. NORTH CAROLINA (-7.5)
It is odd seeing Notre Dame sitting at 4-1 and still unranked. As much as a fan of the Irish that I am, I agree with the writers and coaches thus far. I get Notre Dame is a love-hate team in the college football arena. I gotta say it is nice not hearing the haters whine about Notre Dame being over ranked due to their name. Admittedly, the prestige of the program has taken a hit over the past few years and Notre Dame is currently in a position where they have to earn it back. They can take a baby step toward regaining some respect this week vs. #22(AP) North Carolina. Notre Dame has not won against a ranked team since beating Penn St. 41-17 way back on Sept. 9, 2006! The Tar Heels look to avenge the 45-26 loss they suffered in South Bend in 2006.
Notre Dame 35 North Carolina 24
#15 OKLAHOMA ST. vs. #2 MISSOURI (-13.5)
With Missouri sitting at No. 2 in the country in scoring and Oklahoma St at No. 3, expect some fireworks. I’ve got to admit, I was not on the Chase Daniel bandwagon once the 2008 season started. I did not believe. But after watching him work a few games this season, the kid can just flat out play. His management of the Tigers offense is crisp, effective, efficient and productive. Oklahoma St. needs to keep Daniel and favorite target WR Jeremy Maclin off the field as much as possible. The Cowboys just might be able to achieve this goal with a strong ground game (315.2 rushing yards per game - #2 in the country). Both Oklahoma St. RB’s, Kendall Hunter and Keith Toston have been sensational averaging 7.0 and 8.5 yards per carry respectively. An upset win over the Tigers would go a long way toward dissolving the images of this 2007 rant by Oklahoma St. head coach Mike Gundy.
Missouri 82 Oklahoma St. 81
#5 TEXAS vs. #1 OKLAHOMA (-7)
Either Texas or Oklahoma has represented the South in the Big 12 title game in each of the last nine seasons. You got to believe the winner of this game will keep that trend in tack, although Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech may have something to say about that. While not the deepest conference, the Big 12 currently has 6 teams ranked in the top 17 in the country in both the AP and coaches polls. Five of those ranked teams are unbeaten thus far. Four (mentioned above) of those five are in the same division, thus only one can remain unbeaten all season. So win that division and then be forced to win the Big 12 title game…quite the task to get to the BCS title game. Scenarios like this lend credence to the whole "the regular season IS a playoff" argument. The only problem is that with 120 FSB teams in 12 different conferences, these scenarios don’t always play out as such to dwindle one BCS title game to simply 2 teams. Don’t get me started on this…I’m getting the shakes as I type this (shakes kind of on the same level as Andy Reid trying to make a 4th and goal decision from the 1 yard line).
Oklahoma 38 Texas 24
#4 LSU vs. #11 FLORIDA (-6)
I can just hear it now . Crank it LOUD and I call you a liar if you don’t get fired up! Welcome to the Swamp!!! Now, all I’m hearing leading up to this game is the pre-game comments made by LSU defensive tackle Ricky Jean-Francois that the Tiger defenders are geared up to try to knock Florida QB Tim Tebow out of the game. Why is everyone getting so bent out of shape over this? A few things here: First, if anything, all those comments will do is draw quick whistles on the LSU defense as every referee on the field will have quick triggers with the flags. Second, Tim Tebow is a very big dude and anything short of a cheap shot to the knee will not phase the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner. Third, I’ve never seen him play and don’t care how big he might be, but I’d be damned if anyone with the last name Jean-Francois is going to intimidate me. Looking at the line, it just doesn’t seem right that LSU (undefeated defending champs nonetheless) is getting a full touchdown against the one loss Gators. At last glance, 66% of bettors are taking the bait. Not me.
Florida 35 LSU 28
#6 PENN ST. (-5) vs. WISCONSIN
Much like the baseball fans sitting in Philadelphia, there is similar nervous optimism in Happy Valley. My PSU buddies can’t be found these days. Terrified to say a word. It is funny how sports does this to its fans. In their defense, the Nittany Lions immense success this season has been a little unexpected so it is understandable their fan base is holding back some. On the other hand, Wisconsin’s season is going nothing like expected. They were supposed to challenge Ohio St. for Big Ten supremacy. But the Badgers are now already 0-2 in the conference, losing their last two games to Michigan and Ohio St. by a combined 5 points. While getting the win last week vs. Purdue, the PSU defense stepped it up holding the Boilermakers to 6 points while the usually high scoring offense was held to only 20. Am I the only one that is having an extremely hard time seeing Wisconsin lose back-to-back home games at Camp Randall?
Wisconsin 27 Penn St. 24