Post by MikeGrim on Oct 22, 2008 12:07:35 GMT -5
The 2008 World Series gets underway tonight in Tampa Bay. So far my predictions have been perfect in the NL, picking the Phillies in 4 and 5. The AL is a different story as I had the Red Sox beating the Rays. But the Rays showed that experience doesn't always matter as they went on to defeat the defending world champions in 6 games, led by Matt Garza, who we said would be the key to the Rays postseason. So we will take credit for that one anyway! haha
For this World Series preview, I will break down the two teams position by position, and try to make up my mind along the way what I think will happen. As I type this Tuesday night, I have no idea what to expect, which is one of the many reasons this should be a fun World Series.
CATCHER
Dioner Navarro vs. Carlos RuizNavarro has really come into his own on his 4th MLB team. The Trenton Thunder alumni is good behind the plate, and not a liability at the plate. Ruiz is great at handling the Phillies pitching staff, but has had a weak year with the bat. However, Ruiz has come up with some big hits in the postseason this year. Ruiz gets the edge with the catching, while Navarro has the edge with the hitting. In the end, this one has to be a draw.
(Philly 0, Tampa 0, 1 Draw)
FIRST BASE
Carlos Pena vs. Ryan HowardLike Navarro, Pena has bounced around the majors a bit as well. But he also seems to have found a home for awhile in Tampa. He brings power to their lineup and is very good defensively. Howard should win his 2nd MVP award this year, but is a HUGE liability defensively. Howard also hasn't done anything in the postseason. Out of 9 games, he has been pretty much worthless in 7 or 8 of them. Based on this, I have to give this edge to the Rays.
(Tampa 1, Philly 0, 1 Draw)
SECOND BASE
Akinori Iwamura vs. Chase UtleyIwamura has adapted well to second base, making room for the Rays phenom at third. He is a weak hitting second baseman with average defensive skills. Utley on the other hand is the best second baseman in the game with above average defense. Utley has had a decent postseason this year as well. It's been streaky, but he has added a key hit now and then. Utley wins this matchup for the Phils.
(Tampa 1, Philly 1, 1 Draw)
THIRD BASE
Evan Longoria vs. Pedro FelizThis is a fun position to watch this series. These two could very well be the best defensive third basemen in their respective leagues. Feliz is amazing with the glove, and adds pop with the bat as well, although not as much as expected this year. Longoria is just flat out fun to watch in the field. In game 6 or 7 against Boston, he fielded a slow roller to third, off balance, turned and delivered a strike to second right in the middle of Iwamura's chest, almost allowing Iwamura to turn the double play. Longoria gives the Rays the edge here.
(Tampa 2, Philly 1, 1 Draw)
SHORTSTOP
Jason Bartlett vs. Jimmy RollinsMany will argue Bartlett is the MVP of the Rays this year, while Rollins is the defending MVP of the league. This will be another position that is fun to watch defensively this series, but Rollins' offensive skills put the Phillies a few notches above Tampa here.
(Tampa 2, Philly 2, 1 Draw)
LEFT FIELD
Carl Crawford vs. Pat BurrellThese two offer different skills for their teams. Burrell will usually either hit a home run or walk, if he is to get on base. Crawfod will either get a single or a triple, and usually that single turns into a triple. Burrell has had some big postseason hits this year, but will give Crawford the edge based on the nuisance he can become this series.
(Tampa 3, Philly 2, 1 Draw)
CENTER FIELD
B.J. Upton vs. Shane VictorinoThese two players have had a national coming out party this postseason. Upton almost has as many home runs in the post season as he did in the regular season, while Victorino has shown what Philly fans already knew, that he is the complete package. Victorino has the best outfield arm in all of baseball and does everything else well. His one flaw is that sometimes he gets too fired up. After hitting a grand slam off of CC Sabathia in the NLDS he pumped his fist around the bases. When he got to his locker after the game, his teammates posted a note on his locker that simply said "J. Reyes" which in baseball terms meant "don't be an ass" or "don't make a fool of yourself and your team". Luckily Victorino has been celebrating when it matters and been the spark plug for the team. Upton can continue to be red hot, but I don't see him duplicating his first two rounds. Philly gets the edge here.
(Tampa 3, Philly 3, 1 Draw)
RIGHT FIELD
Rocco Baldelli/Gabe Gross vs. Jayson WerthThe Baldelli/Gross tandem does nothing for me. I think it's the weakest part of their team. Gross in the field was horrible in the Red Sox series from what i saw (and I only saw maybe 5 innings total of that). Werth has a good arm and led the majors in home runs off of left handed pitchers, which could come into play against the Rays. "Edge" to the Phillies.
(Philly 4, Tampa 3, 1 Draw)
DESIGNATED HITTER/BENCH
Cliff Floyd, Baldelli/Gross, Willie Aybar vs. Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Eric Bruntlett, Chris CosteFloyd will probably start at DH for the Rays during the games in Tampa. Other than that, their bench isn't that special. Aybar had a few home runs against Boston, so he could be offer a pinch hit or two during the series. Greg Dobbs led the majors in pinch hitting both of his years in Philly, and may even get a start or two at third. Matt Stairs may get the DH starts on the road, and hopes to have his ass slammed by men again. Advantage Phillies.
(Philly 5, Tampa 3, 1 Draw)
STARTING ROTATION
Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine vs. Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Joe BlantonHamels is the best left handed pitcher in baseball, but Kazmir isn't far behind. Kazmir will make the Rays rely on their bullpen for 3 innings though, while Hamels can go the distance. Myers was a better pitcher than anyone in baseball at the end of the season, but his postseason has been only okay on the mound (GREAT at the plate), while Shields has been consistent throughout. Garza was brilliant in the ALCS, while Moyer had his worst back to back starts of the year, responsible for the Phillies only two postseason losses. Can he really have 3 bad outings in a row? Blanton remains undefeated as a Phillie while Sonnanstine really has bounced back from his 20 loss season a few years back. I will give the Phillies the nod on Hamels, and the Rays the nod on Garza. Shields vs. Myers is tough, but Myers' road stats this year are horrible compared to his home stats, so have to give that one to the Rays. Blanton gets the nod for the #4 starters.
(Philly 7, Tampa 5, 1 Draw)
BULLPEN
Dan Wheeler, David Price, etc vs. Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, Scott Eyre, etcThis one isn't close. This could be the deciding factor in the series, especially if Kazmir's pitch count gets up there early. Phillies win this one.
(Philly 8, Tampa 5, 1 Draw)
MANAGER
Joe Maddon vs. Charlie ManuelBoth guys should take the Manager of the Year this year, so it is fitting they will meet up for the title. Maddon got criticized in the ALCS for switching Kazmir and Shields, in what I thought was the most overblown thing the media has complained about this season. Did it work? Well they lost the Kazmir game and the next one, and needed a game 7 to win the series. But who knows what would have happened if he didn't make the switch. Both guys will throw out some fun quotes during the press conferences, but they offset each other in my mind.
(Philly 8, Tampa 5, 2 Draws)
PREDICTION
Tampa Bay is looking to get revenge on the Phillies for the Bobby Abreu trade of 1997, and has the home field advantage thanks to J.D. Drew, which will give Philly fans another reason to dislike him. Tampa Bay sports teams ended a recent Eagles attempt at a Super Bowl, and a recent Flyers attempt at a Stanley Cup, so the Phillies will look to avenge those two teams for the city. I gave the Phils the advantage in 8 categories compared to Tampa's 5, so that is pretty close. I must admit when I started writing this I was leaning toward Tampa in 6 or 7. But now, I think the biggest factors in this series will be the bullpen, and "leadership", something I did not compare above. And it would be hard to compare. I can not think of who the leader of the Rays is, while with the Phillies you can argue it is Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels, and possibly Chase Utley. If one of those guys gets off to a nice start, others will pick up off their energy. The home field gives the Rays only a slight edge I believe, and not enough to overcome the Phillies strengths. I see Jamie Moyer's start in game 3 being the key to this series. If he gets back on track, the series could be over quickly, possibly 5 games. But, I will give myself room for error and pick the Phillies in 6, giving the city of Philadelphia its second title of 2008 to go with the Philadelphia Soul who play about .... 300 yards away from the Phillies.
PHILLIES IN SIX!
Please take some time to register for our message board and leave
feedback on this prediction and anything else you have to say.
I will be back early next week with a report from my trip to Philly for the
Eagles/Falcons and Phillies/Rays games.
For this World Series preview, I will break down the two teams position by position, and try to make up my mind along the way what I think will happen. As I type this Tuesday night, I have no idea what to expect, which is one of the many reasons this should be a fun World Series.
CATCHER
Dioner Navarro vs. Carlos RuizNavarro has really come into his own on his 4th MLB team. The Trenton Thunder alumni is good behind the plate, and not a liability at the plate. Ruiz is great at handling the Phillies pitching staff, but has had a weak year with the bat. However, Ruiz has come up with some big hits in the postseason this year. Ruiz gets the edge with the catching, while Navarro has the edge with the hitting. In the end, this one has to be a draw.
(Philly 0, Tampa 0, 1 Draw)
FIRST BASE
Carlos Pena vs. Ryan HowardLike Navarro, Pena has bounced around the majors a bit as well. But he also seems to have found a home for awhile in Tampa. He brings power to their lineup and is very good defensively. Howard should win his 2nd MVP award this year, but is a HUGE liability defensively. Howard also hasn't done anything in the postseason. Out of 9 games, he has been pretty much worthless in 7 or 8 of them. Based on this, I have to give this edge to the Rays.
(Tampa 1, Philly 0, 1 Draw)
SECOND BASE
Akinori Iwamura vs. Chase UtleyIwamura has adapted well to second base, making room for the Rays phenom at third. He is a weak hitting second baseman with average defensive skills. Utley on the other hand is the best second baseman in the game with above average defense. Utley has had a decent postseason this year as well. It's been streaky, but he has added a key hit now and then. Utley wins this matchup for the Phils.
(Tampa 1, Philly 1, 1 Draw)
THIRD BASE
Evan Longoria vs. Pedro FelizThis is a fun position to watch this series. These two could very well be the best defensive third basemen in their respective leagues. Feliz is amazing with the glove, and adds pop with the bat as well, although not as much as expected this year. Longoria is just flat out fun to watch in the field. In game 6 or 7 against Boston, he fielded a slow roller to third, off balance, turned and delivered a strike to second right in the middle of Iwamura's chest, almost allowing Iwamura to turn the double play. Longoria gives the Rays the edge here.
(Tampa 2, Philly 1, 1 Draw)
SHORTSTOP
Jason Bartlett vs. Jimmy RollinsMany will argue Bartlett is the MVP of the Rays this year, while Rollins is the defending MVP of the league. This will be another position that is fun to watch defensively this series, but Rollins' offensive skills put the Phillies a few notches above Tampa here.
(Tampa 2, Philly 2, 1 Draw)
LEFT FIELD
Carl Crawford vs. Pat BurrellThese two offer different skills for their teams. Burrell will usually either hit a home run or walk, if he is to get on base. Crawfod will either get a single or a triple, and usually that single turns into a triple. Burrell has had some big postseason hits this year, but will give Crawford the edge based on the nuisance he can become this series.
(Tampa 3, Philly 2, 1 Draw)
CENTER FIELD
B.J. Upton vs. Shane VictorinoThese two players have had a national coming out party this postseason. Upton almost has as many home runs in the post season as he did in the regular season, while Victorino has shown what Philly fans already knew, that he is the complete package. Victorino has the best outfield arm in all of baseball and does everything else well. His one flaw is that sometimes he gets too fired up. After hitting a grand slam off of CC Sabathia in the NLDS he pumped his fist around the bases. When he got to his locker after the game, his teammates posted a note on his locker that simply said "J. Reyes" which in baseball terms meant "don't be an ass" or "don't make a fool of yourself and your team". Luckily Victorino has been celebrating when it matters and been the spark plug for the team. Upton can continue to be red hot, but I don't see him duplicating his first two rounds. Philly gets the edge here.
(Tampa 3, Philly 3, 1 Draw)
RIGHT FIELD
Rocco Baldelli/Gabe Gross vs. Jayson WerthThe Baldelli/Gross tandem does nothing for me. I think it's the weakest part of their team. Gross in the field was horrible in the Red Sox series from what i saw (and I only saw maybe 5 innings total of that). Werth has a good arm and led the majors in home runs off of left handed pitchers, which could come into play against the Rays. "Edge" to the Phillies.
(Philly 4, Tampa 3, 1 Draw)
DESIGNATED HITTER/BENCH
Cliff Floyd, Baldelli/Gross, Willie Aybar vs. Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Eric Bruntlett, Chris CosteFloyd will probably start at DH for the Rays during the games in Tampa. Other than that, their bench isn't that special. Aybar had a few home runs against Boston, so he could be offer a pinch hit or two during the series. Greg Dobbs led the majors in pinch hitting both of his years in Philly, and may even get a start or two at third. Matt Stairs may get the DH starts on the road, and hopes to have his ass slammed by men again. Advantage Phillies.
(Philly 5, Tampa 3, 1 Draw)
STARTING ROTATION
Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine vs. Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Joe BlantonHamels is the best left handed pitcher in baseball, but Kazmir isn't far behind. Kazmir will make the Rays rely on their bullpen for 3 innings though, while Hamels can go the distance. Myers was a better pitcher than anyone in baseball at the end of the season, but his postseason has been only okay on the mound (GREAT at the plate), while Shields has been consistent throughout. Garza was brilliant in the ALCS, while Moyer had his worst back to back starts of the year, responsible for the Phillies only two postseason losses. Can he really have 3 bad outings in a row? Blanton remains undefeated as a Phillie while Sonnanstine really has bounced back from his 20 loss season a few years back. I will give the Phillies the nod on Hamels, and the Rays the nod on Garza. Shields vs. Myers is tough, but Myers' road stats this year are horrible compared to his home stats, so have to give that one to the Rays. Blanton gets the nod for the #4 starters.
(Philly 7, Tampa 5, 1 Draw)
BULLPEN
Dan Wheeler, David Price, etc vs. Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, Scott Eyre, etcThis one isn't close. This could be the deciding factor in the series, especially if Kazmir's pitch count gets up there early. Phillies win this one.
(Philly 8, Tampa 5, 1 Draw)
MANAGER
Joe Maddon vs. Charlie ManuelBoth guys should take the Manager of the Year this year, so it is fitting they will meet up for the title. Maddon got criticized in the ALCS for switching Kazmir and Shields, in what I thought was the most overblown thing the media has complained about this season. Did it work? Well they lost the Kazmir game and the next one, and needed a game 7 to win the series. But who knows what would have happened if he didn't make the switch. Both guys will throw out some fun quotes during the press conferences, but they offset each other in my mind.
(Philly 8, Tampa 5, 2 Draws)
PREDICTION
Tampa Bay is looking to get revenge on the Phillies for the Bobby Abreu trade of 1997, and has the home field advantage thanks to J.D. Drew, which will give Philly fans another reason to dislike him. Tampa Bay sports teams ended a recent Eagles attempt at a Super Bowl, and a recent Flyers attempt at a Stanley Cup, so the Phillies will look to avenge those two teams for the city. I gave the Phils the advantage in 8 categories compared to Tampa's 5, so that is pretty close. I must admit when I started writing this I was leaning toward Tampa in 6 or 7. But now, I think the biggest factors in this series will be the bullpen, and "leadership", something I did not compare above. And it would be hard to compare. I can not think of who the leader of the Rays is, while with the Phillies you can argue it is Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels, and possibly Chase Utley. If one of those guys gets off to a nice start, others will pick up off their energy. The home field gives the Rays only a slight edge I believe, and not enough to overcome the Phillies strengths. I see Jamie Moyer's start in game 3 being the key to this series. If he gets back on track, the series could be over quickly, possibly 5 games. But, I will give myself room for error and pick the Phillies in 6, giving the city of Philadelphia its second title of 2008 to go with the Philadelphia Soul who play about .... 300 yards away from the Phillies.
PHILLIES IN SIX!
Please take some time to register for our message board and leave
feedback on this prediction and anything else you have to say.
I will be back early next week with a report from my trip to Philly for the
Eagles/Falcons and Phillies/Rays games.